he percentage of Bitcoin's circulating supply that has remained unchanged for at least a year has fallen to its lowest point in 18 months. Data from analytics firm Glassnode revealed that as of April 9, 2024, around 12.95 million BTC equating to 65.84% of the total circulating supply of 19.67 million BTC, had not been transacted on the blockchain in over twelve months. This represents a decline from the high of over 70% seen in mid-January following the launch of numerous Bitcoin ETFs in the United States.
Profit-Taking amid Robust Price Rally
This drop likely signals profit-taking activity by investors who had been holding coins in their wallets inactive for extended periods. With the price of Bitcoin up nearly 150% since last April and 50% in 2023 alone, long-term holders may be looking to realize some gains from their positions. The cryptocurrency was trading hands around $70,400 at the time of writing. While it's difficult to know the exact amount from the inactive supply being sold on the market, any dilution indicates a shift from the hodling trend that dominated throughout much of the previous year.
Implications for the Bull Run
According to tracking data on MacroMicro, a decrease in the percentage of Bitcoin held inactive for a year or more has historically been a leading indicator of an impending end to a bull market. Past bull cycles have tended to peak as this metric Bottoms out and moves higher again. However, with the crypto asset still up massively from its 2023 lows and adoption continuing, the current rally may still have further room to run. A pickup in on-chain activity could also signal renewed buying pressure rebuilding supply support levels. Only time will tell if this shift foreshadows a top or if the bulls can power on.
