ello ACG warriors, and welcome to a new AltCryptoGems Market Outlook.
Join us as we navigate the latest innovations shaping the market, decode market sentiment through the Fear & Greed Index, and explore a lively market heatmap.
In this edition, we will delve into the intricacies of major assets such as US500, DXY, Gold, Bitcoin, and Ethereum, uncovering essential support and resistance thresholds.
From BTC's struggle with the 28,000 resistance to Gold nearing the 2000.0 mark and USDT.D being confined within a narrow range, this article leaves no stone unturned!
Without further ado, let's dive right in.
Table of contents
- Market Heatmap and Fear and Greed Index
- US500, DXY and Gold Analysis
- USDT.D, Bitcoin and Ethereum Analysis
- Quotes / Advice
- Closing Remarks
1. Market Heatmap and Fear and Greed Index
To commence my research, I delved into the analysis by examining the market heatmap, offering a comprehensive overview of the entire cryptocurrency landscape.
Following two consecutive weeks of bullish sentiment, the crypto market has transitioned into a bearish correction phase, particularly after BTC faced rejection at the 28,000 resistance level.
Consequently, the heatmap illustrates a notable shift from bullish to bearish sentiment, with the majority of altcoins experiencing a decline ranging between 5% and 10%.
Furthermore, it's worth noting that the Fear & Greed Index has shifted to “Fear” after a couple of weeks of being in the “Neutral” zone.
It's crucial to observe that several crypto assets, including BTC and ETH, are currently either rejecting or have already rejected a robust resistance zone. Hence, it's prudent to exercise caution and refrain from making impulsive decisions in the current market environment.
2. US500, DXY and Gold analysis
We consistently monitor the US500 index to assess the current market sentiment. This practice is vital because the cryptocurrency market often exhibits a significant correlation with the stock market, and this interconnection can impact its fluctuations.
According to our analysis from two weeks ago, the US500 rejected our support level at 4140.0 and traded higher.
Therefore, we still anticipate a bullish continuation until the upper orange trendline as long as the 4140.0 support holds.
The bulls assumed control from a medium-term perspective last week by surpassing the previous major high marked in orange.
Currently, US500 is undergoing a short-term correction phase, trading within the descending blue channel. To facilitate another bullish impulse movement toward the 4445.0 supply, a breakthrough above the blue channel is necessary.
In the meantime, if US500 remains below the blue channel, it could exhibit bearish tendencies and potentially trade lower to test the daily support marked in blue.
We diligently track the DXY - USD Index as part of our regular procedure. This practice is essential because the value of almost all assets, including BTC/USD, is intricately linked to the USD, which serves as the standard currency in the financial markets.
DXY rebounded from our support level at 105.7 and traded higher. We anticipate a movement towards the 107.7 resistance marked in blue, as long as the bulls maintain control.
From the H4 timeframe perspective, it's evident that the bulls have seized control by surpassing the significant orange high. As indicated on the H4 chart, we anticipate continued bullish movement upward.
However, if the bears regain control and manage to break below 106.28, in such a scenario, a movement down to 105.7 would be anticipated.
In our recent analysis, Gold rebounded from our support level at 1800.0 marked in blue and traded higher.
Currently, Gold is approaching the upper boundary of the descending brown channel, which coincides with the 1948.0 resistance zone.
For the bulls to maintain control and advance towards the key level of 2000.0, a break above 1948.0 is crucial.
However, there is still a possibility of the bears gaining momentum and driving the price lower for another downward impulse.
Examining the H4 timeframe, the bulls assumed control after surpassing the last highlighted high in red at 1841.0, as mentioned in our analysis from last week.
At present, we will closely observe the price action, remaining vigilant for any signs of a potential bearish reversal setup. In the meantime, Gold maintains its bullish momentum and has the potential to continue trading higher.
3. USDT.D, Bitcoin and Ethereum analysis
As a standard practice, I begin my analysis with USDT.D as it functions as an indicator of traders' sentiment. USDT.D reflects whether traders are optimistic, indicating investment in cryptocurrencies, or pessimistic, signifying a shift towards stablecoins.
USDT.D has remained stagnant over the past few days, confined within our established blue resistance zone of 8% to 8.2%.
To sustain its bullish momentum, it is imperative for USDT.D to break above the 8.2% mark. Conversely, bears still possess the potential to seize control and drive prices lower, a scenario that could prove advantageous for the broader crypto market.
From a medium-term perspective on the H4 timeframe, USDT.D continues to exhibit bullish momentum while trading within the boundaries of the green channel.
For the bears to regain control, a critical development would involve a break below the lower green trendline and the 8.0% level.
In the meantime, USDT.D remains in a bullish phase and holds the potential to continue trading higher, particularly if it manages to break above the 8.2% level.
After rejecting the 28,000 resistance, BTC has been bearish.
However, for now, this bearish movement is still considered a correction movement unless the last major low at 26,000 is broken downward.
BTC is presently positioned near a significant previous low and a robust support zone at 26,300.
To shift the momentum in favour of the bulls, a decisive break above the previous high marked in green at 27,100 is necessary.
Meanwhile, until the buy signal is triggered, BTC is in a bearish phase and could potentially test the support level at 26,300 and the lower red trendline.
Having rejected the previous significant high at 1750.0, ETH has maintained a predominantly bearish trend. However, it is currently nearing the lower orange trendline and the round number of 1500.0.
Consequently, as long as the 1500.0 level holds, we anticipate the possibility of bullish momentum resuming at any moment.
For the bulls to regain control and anticipate a movement toward 1750.0, a vital breakthrough above the last minor high, denoted in red at 1579.0, is necessary.
In the interim, ETH remains bearish and could potentially trade lower to test the support level at 1500.0.
4. Quotes / Advice
Financial markets are akin to a rollercoaster, with prices fluctuating based on a myriad of factors.
When you invest money you can't afford to lose, you inadvertently board this emotional rollercoaster without a safety harness.
Fear and anxiety grip you during downturns, clouding your judgment and leading to impulsive, irrational decisions.
By investing only what you can afford to lose, you free yourself from this emotional turmoil, enabling rational, level-headed choices even in the face of market volatility.
5. Closing Remarks
In summary, a shift from bullish to bearish sentiment occurred after Bitcoin faced resistance at the 28,000 level, causing most altcoins to decline by 5-10%.
The Fear & Greed Index moved to "Fear," indicating caution.
The US500 index showed potential for bullish continuation if it remains above 4140.0 support, but a break below may lead to bearish tendencies.
DXY rebounded and is expected to move towards 107.7, but a drop below 106.28 could result in a move to 105.7.
Gold rebounded from 1800.0 support, with potential to break above 1948.0 for further bullish movement.
USDT.D remained within the 8-8.2% range, indicating a neutral market sentiment.
Bitcoin's bearish phase could continue if it breaks the 26,000 support, while Ethereum might resume bullish momentum above 1579.0.