elcome to another crypto market outlook for the 5th of May!
In this edition, we'll delve into major assets such as US500, DXY, Gold, Bitcoin, and Ethereum, highlighting critical levels and potential trade setups.
From Bitcoin breaking above the $60,000 round number to Ethereum aiming for the $3330 mark, and the Fear & Greed Index signaling 'Greed' for the entire week, this article covers it all.
Are you ready?
Today, we will cover the following topics:
- Market Heatmap and Fear and Greed Index
- US500, DXY and Gold Analysis
- USDT.D, Bitcoin and Ethereum Analysis
- Quotes / Advices
- Closing Remarks
Market Heatmap and Fear and Greed Index
To initiate my research, I delved into the analysis by examining the market heatmap, which provided a comprehensive overview of the entire cryptocurrency market.
After breaking above the $60,000 resistance, BTC surged in a parabolic manner, closing the week bullish at +1.47%.
This bullish movement in BTC was reflected in the entire crypto market. ETH closed the week bearish by -3.03%, while many altcoins stood strong, closing the week bullish.
The Fear & Greed Index remained stable, signaling "Greed" throughout the entire week. This implies that traders are optimistic, though not to the extent seen last month when it reached the level of Extreme Greed.
US500, DXY and Gold analysis
We consistently monitor the US500 index to assess the current market sentiment. This practice is crucial because the cryptocurrency market often exhibits a significant correlation with the stock market, and this interconnection can impact its fluctuations.
The US500 rejected the upper boundary of the blue wedge pattern and is now in a correction phase.
Approaching the previous all-time high at $4,800, we expect the bulls to kick in, driving the price upward.
In the 4-hour timeframe, the bulls have maintained control, trading within the rising channel marked in red.
The bulls will continue to dominate unless the last major low, highlighted in green at $5040, is breached downward.
We consistently monitor the DXY - USD Index as part of our routine analysis. This is crucial because the value of nearly all assets, including BTC/USD, is closely tied to the USD, which serves as the benchmark currency in the financial market.
As anticipated in our previous outlook, DXY rejected the upper boundary of the blue channel and the $106.5 resistance level.
Currently, DXY is undergoing a correction phase, and we anticipate a bearish continuation towards the lower blue trendline.
In the 4-hour timeframe, DXY is currently hovering around the lower boundary of the wedge pattern marked in red.
As long as the previous major low, highlighted in red at $104.94 holds, we anticipate a bullish continuation towards the $106.5 resistance level once again.
However, if the $104.94 level is breached downward, we anticipate further bearish continuation towards the lower blue trendline and the demand zone highlighted in orange.
This week, Gold has rejected the upper blue and red trendlines and traded lower in an aggressive manner.
We are now anticipating an over-extended bearish correction towards the $2050 support level.
In the 4-hour timeframe, the momentum has shifted from bullish to bearish after breaking below the last major low marked in orange at $2,300.
Currently, Gold is bearish, trading within the falling channel in red, and we anticipate a continuation towards the $2195 demand zone.
For the bulls to regain control, a break above the red channel is needed.
USDT.D, Bitcoin and Ethereum analysis
As a standard practice, I begin my analysis with USDT.D as it serves as a critical indicator of traders' sentiment. USDT.D provides valuable insights into whether traders are optimistic, signaling increased investment in cryptocurrencies, or pessimistic, indicating a shift towards stablecoins.
As anticipated in last week's outlook, USDT.D rejected the 5.25% - 5.45% resistance zone and is currently trading lower.
As USDT.D approaches the lower red trendline and the structure marked in orange at 4.55%, we expect the bulls to kick in to initiate the next bullish impulse movement.
In the 4-hour timeframe, USDT.D has been overall bearish, trading within the falling blue channel, and we anticipate further bearish movement towards the 4.55% mark.
For the bulls to take over, a break above the last major high marked in blue at 4.93% is needed.
BTC has rejected the lower bound of the falling channel in red and is currently trading higher, signaling a bullish correction phase.
As long as the $60,000 support holds, we anticipate further bullish movement towards the $69,000 mark and the upper boundary of the red channel.
For the bulls to maintain control, a break above the last major high highlighted in red at $64,800 is necessary.
Meanwhile, BTC may still trade lower to retest the $60,000 - $62,000 support zone before resuming its uptrend.
As anticipated in our previous analysis, ETH rejected the lower red and brown trendlines, as well as the $2,900 support level, and traded higher.
As long as the bulls remain in control, we anticipate a continuation towards the upper bound of the wedge pattern marked in red.
In the 4-hour timeframe, ETH has been bullish from a medium-term perspective, trading within the rising channel in orange.
The bulls will maintain control unless the last low marked in orange at $3060 is breached downward. In such a scenario, a bearish movement towards the $2900 support level would be anticipated.
Quotes / Advices
Mastering the psychology of crypto trading is crucial.
Fear and greed often drive decisions, leading to impulsive actions and losses.
Understanding market cycles, risk management, and emotional discipline is key.
Patience is rewarded, as emotional reactions can obscure rational judgment.
Building a resilient mindset to navigate volatility is essential for long-term success.
Closing Remarks
In summary, the cryptocurrency market reflects a bullish sentiment, driven by Bitcoin's parabolic surge above the $60,000 resistance, with a modest +1.47% weekly close.
This positive momentum spills over to the overall crypto market, as evidenced by the Fear & Greed Index stabilizing at "Greed" throughout the week.
US500 undergoing a correction, DXY nearing resistance at $106.5, and Gold witnessing an aggressive bearish correction towards $2050.
Additionally, USDT.D signals potential bearish activity, while BTC stabilizes between $60,000-$62,000, aiming for $69,000, and ETH tests resistance at $3,500 post-rejection of support around $2,900-$3,000.
