e are delighted to present our latest Market Outlook, a captivating journey into the dynamic world of cryptocurrencies, viewed through a technical lens.
Join us for an illuminating experience as we delve into the current market conditions, equipping you with indispensable insights to stay ahead and make informed decisions.
Be prepared to expertly navigate the ever-evolving crypto landscape, seizing those invaluable opportunities that await you!
Table of contents
- Market Heatmap and Fear and Greed Index
- US500, DXY and Gold Analysis
- USDT.D, Bitcoin and Ethereum Analysis
- Quotes / Advices
- Closing Remarks
Market Heatmap and Fear and Greed Index
To kickstart my research, I always begin by reviewing the market heatmap, offering a quick snapshot of the entire cryptocurrency landscape. After a decline below the 30,000 mark, BTC's momentum has shifted from bullish to bearish in the short term.
Furthermore, there has been a period of relatively stable but slightly bearish trading at around the 50% level over the past week. As a result, a few altcoins have seized this opportunity to strengthen their positions in the market.
Moreover, for the second consecutive week, the Fear & Greed Index remains in the neutral zone, indicating stability in the market and corroborating the earlier assessment of BTC and BTC.D. It is worth noting that after two weeks of such low volatility, significant price movements are often observed. Therefore, it is prudent to stay prepared for potential market shifts.
US500, DXY and Gold analysis
Due to the strong positive correlation between the crypto market and the stock market, we maintain a constant watch on the US500 index as a key indicator of overall market sentiment.
“S&P 500 Index, also known as the Standard & Poor's 500 or the US500, is an American stock market index that tracks the performance of the top 500 companies listed on the Nasdaq Stock Market or the New York Stock Exchange.”
US500 Chart - Daily Timeframe
Currently, the US500 index remains in an overall bullish trend; however, it is currently facing a significant rejection around the 4600 resistance level. This level holds immense significance as it represents the intersection of several critical factors:
1- Weekly Major High.
2- Upper Short-Term Trendline marked in red.
3- Upper Long-Term Trendline marked in brown.
To maintain the bullish momentum, it is imperative to achieve a weekly candle close above the 4650 level.
Despite the bullish outlook, there is a potential for bearish influence in the market.
US500 Chart - H4 Timeframe
From a medium-term perspective, for the bears to gain control, a break below the 4528 level is required.
In such a scenario, we anticipate a downward movement towards the 4400 support level, highlighted in blue. At that point, we will be actively seeking trend-following buy setups.
As is customary, we closely monitor the DXY - USD Index, as the value of almost everything, including BTC/USD, is tied to the USD, serving as the benchmark currency.
DXY Chart - Daily Timeframe
Following two consecutive bullish weeks, the DXY is currently encountering a robust resistance zone.
To sustain the bullish momentum, the DXY must successfully break above the 102.3 level. In such a scenario, we can anticipate further continuation towards the upper black trendline.
DXY Chart - H4 Timeframe
The current bullish momentum in the DXY will only shift to bearish if it manages to break below the previous significant low of 101.12.
At present, the DXY continues to exhibit a bullish trend.
GOLD Chart - Daily Timeframe
Gold is currently experiencing a consolidation phase, confined within the orange support and green resistance levels.
To empower the bulls and establish control from a long-term perspective, a daily candle close above the critical round number of 2000 is required. Such a development would likely have a positive impact on the crypto market as well.
GOLD Chart - H4 Timeframe
In the short-term, Gold has been displaying a bearish trend, trading within the confines of a falling broadening wedge outlined in blue. As long as the level of 1980 remains unbroken in an upward direction, we anticipate further bearish pressure to persist.
USDT.D, Bitcoin and Ethereum analysis
As per usual, both USDT.D and the Fear & Greed Index serve as indicators of trader sentiment. USDT.D reflects whether traders are optimistic (investing in cryptocurrencies) or pessimistic (shifting towards stablecoins).
USDT.D Chart - Daily Timeframe
USDT.D is currently trading within a narrow range of 7.25% to 7.46%.
A break above 7.46% could lead to further bullish movement until the next resistance at approximately 7.85%, possibly triggering a bearish correction in various crypto assets.
USDT.D Chart - H4 Timeframe
Alternatively, if the lower boundary at 7.22% is breached downward, we can anticipate further bearish movement for USDT.D, which would likely have a positive impact on the crypto market.
BTC Chart - Daily Timeframe
The bears took charge last week by breaking the range and pushing BTC below the 30,000 level.
Consequently, we anticipate a downward movement towards the green support and trendline, located at approximately 27,500. Upon reaching this level, we will closely monitor the market for new short-term trend-following buy setups.
On the other hand, a crucial requirement to establish a long-term bullish momentum and potentially initiate the next bull run is to achieve a weekly candle close above 32,000.
BTC Chart - H4 Timeframe
On the H4 timeframe, from a medium-term perspective, BTC is currently in an overall bearish trend, trading within the confines of a falling broadening wedge pattern.
To firmly establish bearish control, a break below the last low of 28850 is essential. In such a scenario, we can anticipate a downward movement towards 27500.
Conversely, to invalidate the bearish trend, a break above the upper red trendline and the 30000 level is required.
ETH Chart - Daily Timeframe
ETH is currently exhibiting an overall bullish trend from a long-term perspective, trading within the boundaries of a rising broadening wedge pattern highlighted in red.
To witness a shift in momentum from bullish to bearish, it is crucial for the 1600 level to be broken downward.
ETH Chart - H4 Timeframe
From a short-term perspective, ETH is currently exhibiting an overall bearish trend, trading within the confines of a falling channel indicated in orange.
A break below the 1815 level would indicate a downward movement towards the green support around 1750, where we would actively seek buy setups.
Conversely, for the bulls to regain control, a break above the 1905 previous major high, marked in orange, is necessary.
Quotes / Advices
When it comes to trading, this old saying is not just a cliché.
"Success Doesn't Happen Overnight."
It's the result of focus, perseverance and planning.
Many beginner traders look for an easy, fast path to profit.
Don't bother – it doesn't exist!
"Just like Rome wasn’t built in a day."
Nobody becomes successful overnight. It takes time, strategy, discipline and consistent trading until your efforts pay off.
Closing Remarks
In summary, the cryptocurrency market is showing signs of instability, with BTC's momentum shifting from bullish to bearish in the short term. Altcoins are taking advantage of the bearish trading to strengthen their positions. The Fear & Greed Index remains neutral, indicating overall market stability.
The traditional financial markets are relatively bullish, but there is a possibility of bearish influence. The US500 index faces rejection at the 4600 resistance level, while the DXY encounters a strong resistance zone. Gold is in a consolidation phase but needs to close above $2000 to empower the bulls.
USDT.D reflects mixed sentiment, with potential for both bullish and bearish movements. Bitcoin has declined below 30,000, with further downward movement expected. Ethereum maintains a long-term bullish trend but is bearish in the short term.
Traders should closely monitor key levels and trends and stay prepared for potential market shifts. Utilizing technical analysis and risk management strategies is essential in navigating these markets effectively.
