elcome to another crypto market outlook for the 28th of December!
In this edition, we'll dive into major assets such as US500, DXY, Gold, Bitcoin, and Ethereum, pointing out critical levels and potential trade setups.
From Bitcoin hovering inside a range to ETH rejecting the weekly support, and the Fear & Greed Index signaling 'Greed' for three consecutive months, this article covers a wide range of market developments.
Are you ready?
Today, we will cover the following topics:
1- Market Heatmap and Fear and Greed Index
2- US500, DXY and Gold Analysis
3- USDT.D, Bitcoin and Ethereum Analysis
4- Quotes / Advices
5- Closing Remarks
Market Heatmap and Fear and Greed Index
To initiate my research, I delved into the analysis by examining the market heatmap, which provided a comprehensive overview of the entire cryptocurrency market.
After facing rejection at $44,500, BTC has consolidated within a tight range, experiencing a modest 1.58% bearish movement. This consolidation has provided an opportunity for altcoins to shine.
As a result, the heatmap reflects an overall bullish sentiment, contributing to positive price movements across various altcoins. ETH, in particular, stands out with an impressive 8.36% gain.
Despite the recent bearish correction in BTC, the Fear & Greed Index has consistently signaled 'Greed' for an entire month. This persistent signal suggests that traders maintain an optimistic outlook and are actively investing in the crypto market, even during the holiday season.
US500, DXY and Gold analysis
We consistently monitor the US500 index to assess the current market sentiment. This practice is crucial because the cryptocurrency market often exhibits a significant correlation with the stock market, and this interconnection can impact its fluctuations.
This week, the US500 remains overall bullish and is approaching the all-time high at $4825.0, which aligns with the upper boundary of the wedge pattern. For the bulls to retain control, a breakout above the all-time high is needed.
On the 4-hour timeframe, the overall bullish trend is contained within the rising channel marked in red.
The bulls will maintain control unless there is a break below the lower red trendline and the last major low at $4690.0.
We consistently monitor the DXY - USD Index as part of our routine analysis. This is crucial because the value of nearly all assets, including BTC/USD, is closely tied to the USD, which serves as the benchmark currency in the financial market.
The DXY broke below our $102.0 support zone, and it is now acting as a resistance.
Currently, a movement towards the next support in blue at $100.0 is expected, where we will be looking for buy setups.
On the 4-hour timeframe, the overall bearish trend of DXY is evident as it trades inside the falling channel in red.
The bias will remain bearish unless the channel is broken upward. In this case, a movement towards the $102.0 resistance would be expected.
Gold is currently retesting the previous all-time-high and resistance zone.
For the bulls to remain in control and take over from a macro perspective, a daily candle close above $2100.0 is needed. Meanwhile, the bears can still initiate one more correction.
In the 1-hour timeframe, the bulls will remain in control as long as Gold is trading within the rising orange channel.
If the last major low in orange at $2062.0 is broken downward, we will expect the bears to take over and push the price till $2020.0.
USDT.D, Bitcoin and Ethereum analysis
As a standard practice, I initiate my analysis with USDT.D as it serves as a key indicator of traders' sentiment. USDT.D provides valuable insights into whether traders are optimistic, suggesting increased investment in cryptocurrencies, or pessimistic, indicating a shift towards stablecoins.
After hovering around a strong support for almost a month, USDT.D is currently breaking below the 5.63%. Thus, we are now expecting further bearish continuation till the next support around 5.25%.
In the 4-hour timeframe, to transition the momentum from bearish to bullish, we need a breakout above the last major high highlighted in red at 5.84%.
Meanwhile, USDT.D would be bearish as long as it is trading inside the falling channel in red.
BTC is still maintaining an overall bullish stance as it trades within the rising broadening wedge pattern outlined in orange.
As long as the $40,000 support holds, we expect further bullish movement towards the upper bound of the wedge and the $48,000 resistance zone.
In the 4-hour timeframe, BTC has been hovering inside a narrow range between $41,000 and $45,000 in the shape of a symmetrical triangle.
For the bulls to take over again, a break above the $44,500 last major high is needed. In this case, a movement towards $48,000 would be expected.
Meanwhile, as BTC approaches the lower bound of the triangle, we will be looking for short-term buy setups on lower timeframes.
For the third week, ETH is still trading above the $2250.0 support. Thus, we are still anticipating a bullish continuation towards the next resistance at $3,000.
On the 4-hour timeframe, ETH has been bullish from both medium-term and long-term perspectives, and will remain bullish as long as it is trading inside the rising red channel.
The bulls will maintain control unless the last major low at $2175.0 is broken downward. In such a scenario, a movement towards $1900.0 would be expected.
Quotes / Advices
As the last week of 2024 unfolds, set clear trading goals for financial success:
- Establish a specific annual return target to guide your trading strategy.
- Diversify your portfolio to mitigate risk and capitalize on various market opportunities.
- Commit to disciplined risk management practices to safeguard your investments.
- Explore new markets or asset classes to uncover potential opportunities.
- Implement a routine for regular portfolio reviews to adapt to changing market conditions.
In summary, the crypto market displays a bullish sentiment with BTC consolidating after a rejection at $44,500, providing an opportunity for altcoins like ETH to gain an impressive 8.36%.
Despite recent BTC corrections, the Fear & Greed Index signals 'Greed' for a month, reflecting traders' optimism and active participation during the holiday season.
Monitoring the US500, the overall bullish trend persists, approaching an all-time high at $4825.0.
The DXY, a benchmark currency, broke below $102.0 support, signaling potential movement towards $100.0.
Gold retests the all-time high, requiring a daily close above $2100.0 for bullish control.
USDT.D indicates a bearish continuation, with a break below 5.63%, while BTC remains bullish within a rising wedge, expecting movement towards $48,000.
ETH maintains a bullish stance above $2250.0 support, anticipating a move towards $3,000.