ello, ACG warriors! Welcome to another edition of AltCryptoGems Market Outlook.
In this edition, we'll analyze major assets such as US500, DXY, Gold, Bitcoin, and Ethereum, highlighting crucial levels to keep an eye on.
From Bitcoin attempting to break above 38,000 to ETH stuck inside a range, and the Fear & Greed Index signaling 'Greed' for an entire month, this article covers it all.
Are you ready? I am!
Table of contents
- Market Heatmap and Fear and Greed Index
- US500, DXY and Gold Analysis
- USDT.D, Bitcoin and Ethereum Analysis
- Quotes / Advice
- Closing Remarks
1. Market Heatmap and Fear and Greed Index
To initiate my research, I delved into the analysis by examining the market heatmap, which offered a comprehensive overview of the entire cryptocurrency market.
Unlike the previous week, the current week has been bullish for the crypto market, with BTC showing an increase of 1.42%.
Consequently, the heatmap reflects a slight bullish sentiment, leading to a positive price movement for almost all altcoins.
Furthermore, it's worth noting that the Fear & Greed Index is still signaling 'Greed,' indicating that traders remain optimistic and are actively buying crypto assets, especially with the ETF approval on the horizon.
2. US500, DXY and Gold analysis
We consistently monitor the US500 index to assess the current market sentiment. This practice is crucial because the cryptocurrency market often demonstrates a significant correlation with the stock market, and this interconnection can influence its fluctuations.
The US500 is still overall bullish as the bulls have maintained control for another week; however, it is approaching a strong weekly resistance.
For the bulls to remain in control from a long-term perspective, a break above 4650.0 is needed.
The bulls will continue to be in control as long as the US500 is trading inside the rising red channel, and a movement within the weekly resistance is anticipated.
To shift the momentum in favor of the bears, a break below the lower red trendline and the last low at 4522.0 is required.
We consistently track the DXY - USD Index as part of our routine procedure. This is crucial because the value of almost all assets, including BTC/USD, is closely connected to the USD, which serves as the standard currency in the financial markets.
DXY is still overall bearish and approaching a strong support highlighted in orange.
As DXY approaches the support zone, we will be looking for buy setups on lower timeframes.
For the bulls to take over, a break above the upper red trendline and the last major high in red at 104.2 is necessary.
Meanwhile, DXY would remain bearish, and a movement towards the lower red trendline and the orange support would be expected.
Gold is currently retesting a robust resistance at the round number 2000.0.
To sustain bullish control, a daily candle close above 2000.0 is imperative. In this case, a movement towards the next resistance in red at 2065.0 would be expected. Meanwhile, the bears could still exert influence and drive the price lower.
The bulls will continue to be in control as long as Gold is trading inside the rising wedge in blue.
For the bears to regain control and push the price lower, a break below the last low in blue at 1984.0 is needed. In such a scenario, we would anticipate a movement towards the 1920.0 demand zone marked in red.
3. USDT.D, Bitcoin and Ethereum analysis
As a standard practice, I initiate my analysis with USDT.D as it serves as a key indicator of traders' sentiment. USDT.D provides valuable insights into whether traders are optimistic, suggesting increased investment in cryptocurrencies, or pessimistic, indicating a shift towards stablecoins.
USDT.D has maintained a close range around a robust resistance area for a full month.
The breakout from this crucial zone will establish the trajectory for the remainder of 2023.
In the H4 timeframe, from a short-term perspective, USDT.D rejected the lower bound of the range and traded higher.
For the bulls to remain in control, a break above 6.5% is needed. In this case, a movement towards the upper bound of the range would be expected.
Conversely, if the 6.2% level is breached downward, we can anticipate bearish continuation towards the 5.83% support.
BTC is still overall bullish, operating within the upward channel outlined in orange. Nevertheless, it is nearing the upper limit and the resistance area spanning from 38,000 to 40,000.
For the bulls to remain in control, a break above 38,000 is necessary. In this case, a movement towards 40,000 would be expected.
Meanwhile, the bears can still exert influence and reject the resistance zone.
In the H4 timeframe, for the bears to take over in the short term, a break below the last minor low at 36,850 is needed. In this case, a movement towards the lower red trendline would be expected.
Subsequently, for the bears to take over in the medium term, we need a break below the last major low at 35,650. In this case, a movement towards the 32,000 support would be expected.
ETH is still around the 2000 - 2250 resistance zone and the upper part of the black wedge pattern.
To confirm a strong bullish trend, we need a weekly candle to close above 2250.0.
If that happens, we might see ETH move towards the 3000.0 red resistance zone.
On the other hand, bears could still cause another downward correction.
On the H4 timeframe, the bulls will continue to be in control unless the last major low in gray at 1900.0 is broken downward.
In this case, a movement towards the lower black trendline at 1700.0 would be expected.
4. Quotes / Advice
A trader, like a chef, blends diverse ingredients to create a successful outcome.
Both require skill, precision, and adaptability.
Traders, akin to chefs crafting a recipe, analyze market data, assess risks, and execute strategic plans.
Just as a chef adjusts flavors to suit the palate, traders adapt to market conditions.
Both professions demand continuous learning, innovation, and the ability to navigate unforeseen challenges.
5. Closing Remarks
In summary, the crypto market is currently experiencing a slow week with a slight bearish sentiment, as reflected in the market heatmap. While the Fear & Greed Index still signals 'Greed,' the possibility of a shift to 'Neutral' or 'Fear' exists if the bearish trend persists.
In the traditional markets, the US500 index is showing bullish momentum, anticipating further upward movement.
The DXY (USD Index) is under bearish control, with potential downside until reaching the orange support zone around 102.5.
Gold is retesting the 2000.0 resistance, requiring a daily candle close above this level for sustained bullish control.
USDT.D indicates a relatively uneventful week, hovering around the 6.5% resistance.
Bitcoin (BTC) is range-bound around the 38,000 resistance, with a need for a daily close above this level to maintain bullish control.
Ethereum (ETH) is near the 2000-2250 resistance zone, requiring a weekly close above 2250.0 for long-term bullish control.