elcome to another crypto market outlook for the 25th of February!
In this edition, we'll delve into major assets such as US500, DXY, Gold, Bitcoin, and Ethereum, highlighting critical levels and potential trade setups.
From Bitcoin rejecting the $53,000 mark to Ethereum breaking above $3000 round number and the Fear & Greed Index hitting new highs, this article covers it all.
Are you ready?
Today, we will cover the following topics:
- Market Heatmap and Fear and Greed Index
- US500, DXY and Gold Analysis
- USDT.D, Bitcoin and Ethereum Analysis
- Quotes / Advices
- Closing Remarks
Market Heatmap and Fear and Greed Index
To initiate my research, I delved into the analysis by examining the market heatmap, which provided a comprehensive overview of the entire cryptocurrency market.
After rejecting the $53,000 mark, BTC remained within a tight range throughout the week, ending nearly unchanged with a minor bearish movement of -0.07%.
The heatmap reveals a mix of bearish and bullish sentiment, largely due to BTC's consolidation. Interestingly, ETH closed the week with a significant +9.8% growth.
The Fear & Greed Index has consistently indicated "Greed" throughout the entire week, particularly in the last two days, with the meter rising from 72 to 74. This suggests that traders are optimistic, possibly influenced by the approval of Bitcoin ETFs and anticipation of the upcoming halving.
US500, DXY and Gold analysis
We consistently monitor the US500 index to assess the current market sentiment. This practice is crucial because the cryptocurrency market often exhibits a significant correlation with the stock market, and this interconnection can impact its fluctuations.
After breaking above the $5000 round number, US500 continued its upward trend, marking a new all-time high this week.
However, it is still hovering around the upper bound of the orange wedge pattern, which is acting as an overbought zone. Therefore, there remains potential for bears to step in and drive the price downward.
In the 1-hour timeframe, US500 has been overall bullish, trading within a flat rising broadening wedge in red.
The bulls are expected to maintain control in the short term, unless the last low in red at $5070 is breached downward. In such an event, a bearish correction towards the $5000 mark would be anticipated.
We consistently monitor the DXY - USD Index as part of our routine analysis. This is crucial because the value of nearly all assets, including BTC/USD, is closely tied to the USD, which serves as the benchmark currency in the financial market.
DXY has experienced a relatively uneventful week, remaining around the lower red trendline.
As long as the $103.65 structure remains intact, we anticipate a bullish continuation towards the $105 resistance level.
In parallel, if the $103.65 level is breached downward, we would expect a movement towards the $102.7 support in orange.
In the 1-hour timeframe, DXY has broken above the descending orange channel, indicating bullish momentum.
However, for the bulls to confirm control and initiate the next upward impulse movement, a breakout above the last major high in red at $104.18 is necessary.
As anticipated, Gold has rejected our $1980 - $2000 support zone and is currently trading higher.
However, it is now approaching the upper blue trendline, which acts as a non-horizontal resistance.
In the 4-hour timeframe, Gold broke above the $2020 structure and traded higher, indicating a shift in momentum from bearish to bullish from a medium-term perspective.
As long as the $2020 level holds, we anticipate a bullish continuation towards the upper red and blue trendlines, around $2045.
USDT.D, Bitcoin and Ethereum analysis
As a standard practice, I begin my analysis with USDT.D as it serves as a critical indicator of traders' sentiment. USDT.D provides valuable insights into whether traders are optimistic, signaling increased investment in cryptocurrencies, or pessimistic, indicating a shift towards stablecoins.
USDT.D has experienced limited activity this week, remaining within a narrow range between the 5% support and 5.25% resistance levels.
A break below the 5% support would signal a bearish continuation, potentially positively impacting the overall sentiment in the crypto market.
In the 4-hour timeframe, USDT.D is forming an inverse head and shoulders pattern.
For the bulls to take control, a breakout above the orange neckline and the 5.25% resistance level is necessary.
As mentioned earlier, BTC has seen little action this week, hovering around the upper boundary of the range channel.
For the bulls to maintain control from a long-term perspective, a breakout above the $53,000 mark is required.
In parallel, for the bears to take control and initiate the correction phase, a break below the lower bound of the range at $50,500 is required.
In such a scenario, a movement towards the $48,000 demand would be anticipated.
As mentioned last week, ETH is currently hovering around a significant rejection zone, marked by the intersection of several key factors:
- The upper boundary of the orange wedge pattern
- The upper boundary of the blue wedge pattern
- The $3000 round number
In the 4-hour timeframe, ETH would maintain an overall bullish outlook unless the lower red trendline and the last major low in orange at $2880 are breached downward.
In such an event, a bearish correction towards the $2690 support level would be anticipated.
Quotes / Advices
Crypto trading, like any business, demands strategic planning, risk management, and adaptability.
Success hinges on thorough market analysis, informed decision-making, and the ability to navigate volatility.
Just as in traditional business, building a strong foundation through research and continuous learning is essential.
Moreover, maintaining discipline and resilience in the face of setbacks is crucial.
Closing Remarks
In summary, BTC ended the week with a minor -0.07% bearish movement, rejecting the $53,000 mark.
Ethereum (ETH) closed with a notable +9.8% growth, hovering around the upper boundary of the orange wedge pattern.
The Fear & Greed Index rose from 72 to 74, indicating trader optimism.
The US500 hit new all-time highs but faces potential bearish pressure near $5070.
The DXY (USD Index) anticipates bullish continuation if $103.65 holds, with a breakout target at $104.18.
Gold rejected support near $2000 and aimed for $2045 resistance.
USDT.D shows a forming inverse head and shoulders pattern, signaling potential bullish control above 5.25% resistance.
