ello ACG warriors, and welcome to a new AltCryptoGems Market Outlook.
In this article, we delve into the latest developments in the crypto market, starting with an analysis of the Fear & Greed Index and a market heatmap.
We'll explore how the market sentiment is shaping up and its potential implications.
Additionally, we'll closely examine the US500, DXY, Gold, Bitcoin, and Ethereum trends, pinpointing crucial support and resistance levels
Join us on this journey to gain valuable insights and make informed choices in today's dynamic cryptocurrency landscape.
Table of contents
- Market Heatmap and Fear and Greed Index
- US500, DXY and Gold Analysis
- USDT.D, Bitcoin and Ethereum Analysis
- Quotes / Advice
- Closing Remarks
1. Market Heatmap and Fear and Greed Index
To kickstart my research, I began by analyzing the market heatmap, which offers a swift overview of the entire cryptocurrency landscape.
This week commenced with bullish momentum following BTC's rejection of the 26,400 mark. However, over the past couple of days, the market has been relatively uneventful, with BTC trading within a narrow range of 400 points.
The heatmap indicates that the prevailing sentiment remains somewhat bearish, with no noteworthy movements.
Furthermore, it's noteworthy that the Fear & Greed Index has once again shown "fear" for five consecutive weeks.
In the past, when "fear" persisted for 3-4 weeks in a row, it hinted at a possible shift in sentiment from bearish to bullish.
Nevertheless, it's essential to underscore that this transition relies on fundamental factors, and there is still no distinct price movement indicating any bullish sentiment. Hence, it's prudent to exercise caution and refrain from impulsive decisions in the current market environment.
2. US500, DXY and Gold analysis
We maintain regular monitoring of the US500 index to evaluate the present market sentiment. This is crucial as the cryptocurrency market frequently demonstrates a pronounced connection with the stock market, and this interrelation can exert an influence on its ups and downs.
Following its rejection of the 4580.0 resistance level, the US500 has been bearish trading within the descending channel marked in orange.
Nevertheless, it's worth noting that the US500 is presently nearing a robust support zone where the lower orange and blue trendlines intersect. As long as the support at 4255.0 remains intact, we anticipate a potential shift towards bullish sentiment.
On the H4 timeframe, it's evident that the bears have gained control by breaking below the 4429.0 low. As mentioned in the Daily timeframe analysis, the US500 is currently within a support zone.
To shift the momentum in favour of the bulls, a breakthrough above the last minor high at 4373.0, highlighted in orange, is required. In the short term, the bears are expected to maintain control.
As a standard practice, we maintain a close watch on the DXY - USD Index. This is imperative because the value of almost everything, including BTC/USD, is intricately linked to the USD, rendering it the benchmark currency in the financial markets.
The USD index is presently showing resilience, although it's important to observe that it is trading within the 105.0 - 105.7 resistance range. To see a long-term shift in favor of the bears, a decisive drop below the last significant low at 104.303 is necessary.
On the H4 timeframe perspective, the bulls continue to maintain control, particularly if there is an upward break of the 105.7 level.
As the DXY retests the 105.0 level and the lower blue trendline, we will be on the lookout for opportunities to enter trend-following buy positions.
Turning our attention to Gold, in line with our previous week's discussion, Gold encountered resistance at 1948.0 and subsequently saw a decline in its value.
However, it is now nearing a support zone indicated in red. For the bearish momentum to endure, a significant breach below the 1905.0 level is required.
Here's the perspective from the H4 timeframe, illustrating that Gold is presently situated between our orange resistance and red support levels. Consequently, we will patiently await its approach to one of these pivotal rejection zones to identify potential trading setups.
3. USDT.D, Bitcoin and Ethereum analysis
As usual, I always start my analysis with USDT.D as it indicates traders' sentiment. USDT.D reflects whether traders are optimistic (investing in cryptocurrencies) or pessimistic (shifting towards stablecoins).
USDT.D has experienced a rather uneventful week, staying consistently within the predefined support zone of 7.94% - 8.1%. This leads us to continue anticipating the possibility of bullish activity, which might not be favourable for the wider crypto market.
Nevertheless, for the bears to take command, it would necessitate breaking below the 7.94% support level and also crossing the lower red trendline. Such a development could potentially benefit the cryptocurrency market.
Examining the H4 timeframe, USDT.D has been confined within a range forming an inverse head and shoulders pattern.
To tilt the scales in favor of the bulls and indicate a possible shift from a bearish to a bullish standpoint, we would need to see a candle closing above the blue neckline, which is situated around 8.11%.
However, in the near term, USDT.D may continue to exhibit a bearish perspective, with bears potentially taking full control if the recent low at 7.85% is breached to the downside.
BTC remains within a significant range, with support at 24,200 and resistance at 28,000.
Presently, BTC is in a neutral position, positioned midway between our two crucial rejection zones.
As predicted last week, BTC faced resistance at the 27,350 supply zone, resulting in a downward movement.
BTC has now found support at 26,200. To see a short-term resurgence of the bulls, it would require a breakout above the last minor high marked in orange at 26,780.
On the flip side, if the support at 26,200 is breached to the downside, we should anticipate further bearish movement towards the 25,500 demand zone.
ETH faced rejection at our established resistance zone of 1680.0, leading to a decline in its value.
For the bulls to regain control, we would require a daily candle to close above the 1680.0 level. In such a scenario, we could anticipate a bullish rally towards 1815.0 and the upper boundary of the orange channel.
Meanwhile, the overall bias remains bearish, and as ETH approaches the 1550.0 demand zone, we will be on the lookout for short-term buying opportunities.
However, should the 1550.0 level be breached to the downside, we should anticipate further bearish movement towards the lower orange and red trendlines.
4. Quotes / Advice
If you find yourself not in the best condition, it's wise to refrain from trading.
Keep this in mind: You don't have to chase after every trading opportunity, and there's no obligation to trade every single week.
The key is to engage in trading when you're emotionally grounded and possess a clear mindset.
This way, you can fully concentrate on executing your trading plan with objectivity and precision.
5. Closing Remarks
In summary, the market heatmap shows a recent lack of significant movement, and the Fear & Greed Index has remained in the "fear" zone for five consecutive weeks, potentially signalling a shift in sentiment from bearish to bullish.
US500 is trading within a descending channel, but a shift towards bullish sentiment is possible if support holds.
DXY remains resilient within a specific range, and a bearish shift would require a decisive drop.
Gold faces resistance at 1948.0 but is approaching a support zone around 1905.0.
USDT.D reflects traders' sentiment, and it has been relatively stable within a range.
BTC remains within a range, with support at 24,200 and resistance at 28,000.
ETH faced rejection at 1680.0, and a bullish rally would require a daily candle to close above this level.
Overall, the cryptocurrency market is in a state of uncertainty, with potential for both bullish and bearish movements in the coming weeks.