ello, ACG warriors! Welcome to another edition of AltCryptoGems Market Outlook.
In this comprehensive analysis, we'll delve into major assets such as US500, DXY, Gold, Bitcoin, and Ethereum, highlighting crucial levels to keep an eye on.
From Bitcoin hovering inside a narrow range to ETH breaking below the 2000.0 round number, and the Fear & Greed Index signaling 'Greed' despite the bearish sentiment, this article covers it all.
Are you prepared? Let's go!
Table of contents
- Market Heatmap and Fear and Greed Index
- US500, DXY and Gold Analysis
- USDT.D, Bitcoin and Ethereum Analysis
- Quotes / Advices
- Closing Remarks
1. Market Heatmap and Fear and Greed Index
To initiate my research, I delved into the analysis by examining the market heatmap, which offered a comprehensive overview of the entire cryptocurrency market.
Unlike the preceding couple of weeks, this week has been relatively slow, with the entire crypto market stuck in a narrow range, leaning towards a bearish trend.
Consequently, the heatmap indicates a slight bearish sentiment, marked by a 1% decline in Bitcoin, which has resulted in a similar downturn in nearly all altcoins.
Furthermore, it's worth noting that the Fear & Greed Index is still signaling 'Greed,' even though the last couple of days have been bearish.
This is quite normal, as human psychology typically lags behind, with traders currently in a state of denial regarding the possibility that the bullish impulse might be over.
If the bearish sentiment persists for one more day, we could see the Fear & Greed Index shifting to 'Neutral' or even 'Fear.'
2. US500, DXY and Gold analysis
We consistently monitor the US500 index to assess the current market sentiment. This practice is vital because the cryptocurrency market often exhibits a significant correlation with the stock market, and this interconnection can impact its fluctuations.
The bulls have maintained control for another week, especially after breaking above the 4455.0 resistance zone.
Consequently, we anticipate further bullish movement until the 4580.0 resistance is reached.
The bulls have maintained control, as there hasn't been a break below the last low in red at 4338.0 mentioned last week. The bulls will continue to dominate as long as US500 is trading inside the rising channel marked in green.
To shift the momentum to the bears, a break below the lower green trendline and the last low at 4485.0 is needed. In such a scenario, we would anticipate a movement towards the upper orange trendline.
We consistently track the DXY - USD Index as a routine procedure. This is crucial because the value of almost all assets, including BTC/USD, is closely connected to the USD, which acts as the standard currency in the financial markets.
The bears seized full control last week after the CPI report last Tuesday, leading to DXY breaking below the 105.0 support in green.
Consequently, we anticipate further bearish movement until reaching the orange support zone around 102.5.
The bears will continue to dominate as long as DXY is trading within the falling channel marked in red. If DXY moves higher, we will be on the lookout for trend-following sell setups around the upper red trendline.
Simultaneously, as DXY approaches the lower red trendline and the orange support, we will be searching for buy setups on lower timeframes.
Gold is presently retesting a robust resistance and the round number 2000.0.
To sustain bullish control, a daily candle close above 2000.0 is imperative. Meanwhile, the bears could still exert influence and drive the price lower.
Last week, the bears took control by breaking below the 1975.0 support in orange, leading to a lower trade.
Currently, Gold is trading within the rising blue channel and retesting the 2000.0 resistance.
For the bears to regain control and push the price lower, a break below the blue channel is necessary. In such a scenario, we would anticipate a movement towards the 1920.0 demand zone marked in red.
3. USDT.D, Bitcoin and Ethereum analysis
As a standard practice, I initiate my analysis with USDT.D as it serves as a key indicator of traders' sentiment. USDT.D provides valuable insights into whether traders are optimistic, suggesting increased investment in cryptocurrencies, or pessimistic, indicating a shift towards stablecoins.
This week has been relatively uneventful compared to the previous couple of weeks, with USDT.D still hovering around the 6.5% resistance.
To shift the momentum in favour of the bulls and indicate a potential trend reversal for the crypto market, a daily candle close above 6.5% is required.
Meanwhile, the bears would maintain control and drive the price lower unless the bulls succeed in breaking above the last high in orange at 6.67%. In this case, we will be expecting a significant bullish movement until the 7.15% resistance.
Similar to USDT.D, BTC has also been trapped within a range around the 38,000 resistance.
To sustain bullish control and advance towards 40,000, a daily candle close above 38,000 is essential.
The bulls would maintain control as long as we are trading inside the rising wedge in red, and a movement towards the upper boundary of the wedge is anticipated.
For the bears to take over and initiate a shift in momentum from bullish to bearish, a break below the last low in red at 35,100 is necessary. In this scenario, we would expect further bearish movement towards the 32,000 support.
ETH is still hovering around the 2000 - 2250 resistance zone in blue and the upper boundary of the black wedge pattern.
To establish long-term bullish control, a weekly candle close above 2250.0 is required.
Meanwhile, the bears can still initiate one more bearish correction.
On the H4 timeframe, for the bulls to take over from a medium-term perspective, a break above the upper red trendline and 2030.0, marked in gray, is necessary.
Meanwhile, the bears would maintain control, and we can anticipate further bearish movement until reaching the next support at 1760.0 in orange.
4. Quotes / Advice
Here are my golden tips for successful trading (Part 4)
Avoid Overtrading: Avoid making excessive trades and focus on high-probability setups.
Set Realistic Goals: Setting unattainable targets can lead to frustration and poor decision-making.
Regular Breaks: Take breaks to clear your mind and avoid burnout. A refreshed mind makes better decisions.
Monitor and Adjust: Regularly review your trading strategy and performance.
5. Closing Remarks
In summary, the crypto market is currently experiencing a slow week with a slight bearish sentiment, as reflected in the market heatmap. While the Fear & Greed Index still signals 'Greed,' the possibility of a shift to 'Neutral' or 'Fear' exists if the bearish trend persists.
In the traditional markets, the US500 index is showing bullish momentum, anticipating further upward movement.
The DXY (USD Index) is under bearish control, with potential downside until reaching the orange support zone around 102.5.
Gold is retesting the 2000.0 resistance, requiring a daily candle close above this level for sustained bullish control.
USDT.D indicates a relatively uneventful week, hovering around the 6.5% resistance.
Bitcoin (BTC) is range-bound around the 38,000 resistance, with a need for a daily close above this level to maintain bullish control.
Ethereum (ETH) is near the 2000-2250 resistance zone, requiring a weekly close above 2250.0 for long-term bullish control.