elcome to another crypto market outlook for the 14th of April!
In this edition, we'll delve into major assets such as US500, DXY, Gold, Bitcoin, and Ethereum, highlighting critical levels and potential trade setups.
From Bitcoin hovering around the $60,000 support, to Ethereum rejecting the lower bound of two channels, and the Fear & Greed Index dropping from ‘Extreme Greed’ to 'Greed’, this article covers it all.
Are you ready?
Today, we will cover the following topics:
- Market Heatmap and Fear and Greed Index
- US500, DXY and Gold Analysis
- USDT.D, Bitcoin and Ethereum Analysis
- Quotes / Advices
- Closing Remarks
Market Heatmap and Fear and Greed Index
To initiate my research, I delved into the analysis by examining the market heatmap, which provided a comprehensive overview of the entire cryptocurrency market.
After being rejected at the $72,000 resistance, BTC fell by 6%, sparking fears across the entire crypto market.
This bearish movement was reflected in altcoins, with nearly all closing the week in bearish territory, ranging between -5% and -20%.
The Fear & Greed Index has dropped from "Extreme Greed" to "Greed" this week, indicating that traders are less optimistic amid speculation about a potential war on the horizon.
US500, DXY and Gold analysis
We consistently monitor the US500 index to assess the current market sentiment. This practice is crucial because the cryptocurrency market often exhibits a significant correlation with the stock market, and this interconnection can impact its fluctuations.
After showing bullish momentum for a couple of weeks, the US500 index rejected the upper boundary of the blue wedge pattern.
Given the current dominance of bears, we anticipate a correction toward the $5000 psychological level.
In the 4-hour timeframe, according to our analysis from last week, the bears have maintained control as the US500 has continued to trade within the descending wedge pattern.
As it nears the lower boundary of the wedge pattern and the $5060 support level, we anticipate the bulls to take over for a correction.
We consistently monitor the DXY - USD Index as part of our routine analysis. This is crucial because the value of nearly all assets, including BTC/USD, is closely tied to the USD, which serves as the benchmark currency in the financial market.
DXY has been overall bullish trading within the rising channel marked in blue.
However, it is currently nearing the upper bound of the channel and the $106.5 resistance level, suggesting an imminent bearish response.
In the 1-hour timeframe, the bulls are expected to maintain control in the short term as long as DXY continues to trade within the ascending channel marked in red.
To signal a shift in momentum favoring the bears and initiating a correction phase, a break below the last major low marked in red at $105.575 is required.
Gold maintains an overall bullish outlook from a macro perspective, and we anticipate a continuation towards the upper blue and brown trendlines, as well as the $2500 round number.
In the 4-hour timeframe, Gold has experienced a rejection from the upper boundary of the orange channel and is undergoing a correction phase.
We anticipate a movement towards the $2300 support level and the lower boundary of the orange channel, where we expect bullish momentum to kick in, initiating the next impulse movement towards $2500.
USDT.D, Bitcoin and Ethereum analysis
As a standard practice, I begin my analysis with USDT.D as it serves as a critical indicator of traders' sentiment. USDT.D provides valuable insights into whether traders are optimistic, signaling increased investment in cryptocurrencies, or pessimistic, indicating a shift towards stablecoins.
As anticipated in last week's outlook, USDT.D rejected the 4% support and surged in a parabolic manner.
Currently, USDT.D is hovering around the upper boundary of the descending orange channel and the 5% resistance, indicating a potential bearish response.
In the 4-hour timeframe, the bulls took control following the break above the previous major high at 4.32%.
As long as the 4.66% support level holds, we anticipate a continuation towards the 5% - 5.25% resistance zone.
BTC has been trading within a big range, fluctuating between $60,000 and $74,000.
Currently, BTC hovers around the lower boundary of this range, prompting us to look buy setups on lower timeframes.
However, if BTC breaks below the $60,000 mark, we anticipate further bearish movement toward the $52,000 support level.
Short-term control will remain with the bears as long as BTC trades below the red trendline.
In parallel, if the last major high in red at $66,100 mark is broken upward, we will expect the beginning of the bullish trend towards the $70,000 resistance level.
As mentioned last week, if the last low at $3430 is breached downward, the bears would take control.
Currently, ETH is retesting the $3,000 demand level and the lower red and brown trendlines, so we will be looking for buy setups on lower timeframes.
To shift the momentum from bearish to bullish, the bulls must break above the last major high marked in orange at $3,155.
However, ETH remains overall bearish and could continue trading lower to test the lower red and brown trendlines.
Quotes / Advices
Buying the dip can be lucrative if done wisely.
First, identify strong, fundamentally sound assets with potential for long-term growth.
Monitor market trends and news to gauge the cause of the dip.
Don't rush; exercise patience for the best entry point.
Use limit orders to buy at a predetermined price to avoid emotional decisions.
Finally, diversify your portfolio to mitigate risk.
Closing Remarks
In summary, the cryptocurrency market experienced a setback with BTC falling from $72,000, impacting altcoins.
The Fear & Greed Index shifted to "Greed" amid war speculation.
US500 faces a bearish correction, while DXY nears resistance.
Gold is bullish but correcting towards $2300.
USDT.D surged, potentially signaling a bearish response.
BTC remains within $60,000-$74,000, while ETH tests $3,000 support.
