ello, ACG warriors! Welcome to another edition of AltCryptoGems Market Outlook.
In this comprehensive analysis, we'll delve into major assets such as US500, DXY, Gold, Bitcoin, and Ethereum, highlighting crucial levels to keep an eye on.
From Bitcoin's 6% rise in one week to ETH eyeing a weekly resistance zone, and the Fear & Greed Index signaling 'Greed' for the second consecutive week, this article covers it all.
Are you ready? Let's go!
Table of contents
- Market Heatmap and Fear and Greed Index
- US500, DXY and Gold Analysis
- USDT.D, Bitcoin and Ethereum Analysis
- Quotes / Advice
- Closing Remarks
1. Market Heatmap and Fear and Greed Index
To initiate my research, I delved into the analysis by examining the market heatmap, which offered a comprehensive overview of the entire cryptocurrency market.
The market has sustained a positive trend for a full month.
As a result, the heatmap indicates a robust optimistic sentiment, marked by a 6% rise in Bitcoin, leading to a similar resilience in nearly all altcoins.
Furthermore, it's worth noting that the Fear & Greed Index has consistently signaled "Greed" for the second week in a row, indicating clear optimism in the crypto space with the prospect of ETF approval on the horizon.
Usually, following a few weeks of a "Greed" sentiment, the cryptocurrency market tends to undergo a downward correction. However, it is crucial to emphasize that this observation should be validated by analyzing price movements.
Hence, it is wise to be cautious and avoid making hasty decisions in the current market conditions.
2. US500, DXY and Gold analysis
We consistently monitor the US500 index to assess the current market sentiment. This practice is vital because the cryptocurrency market often exhibits a significant correlation with the stock market, and this interconnection can impact its fluctuations.
As mentioned last week, the US500 has shown a bullish trend, but it is currently approaching the upper boundary of the orange wedge pattern, which serves as a non-horizontal resistance.
For the bulls to gain control from a long-term perspective, a breakthrough above the 4455.0 resistance, highlighted in green, is essential. In such a scenario, a movement towards 4580.0 would be anticipated.
Meanwhile, the bears have the potential to reject the orange trendline and initiate a downward movement.
For the bears to gain control from a medium-term perspective, particularly on the H4 timeframe, a break below the last low in red at 4338.0 is required.
We consistently track the DXY - USD Index as a routine procedure. This is crucial because the value of almost all assets, including BTC/USD, is closely connected to the USD, which acts as the standard currency in the financial markets.
The DXY has exhibited relative stability this past week compared to the previous one and is currently holding within our established support zone.
For the bears to assume control from a long-term perspective, a break below the 105.0 support is necessary. Meanwhile, if the bulls maintain dominance, the current status quo would persist.
To sustain medium-term control, the bulls must secure a breakthrough above the orange supply zone at 106.24. In such a scenario, an anticipated movement towards the upper red trendline is likely.
Conversely, if there is a downward breach of the last low in red at 105.36, anticipate the bears taking over in the short term.
Gold has rejected our designated green resistance zone at 2000.0 and subsequently traded lower. Consequently, our anticipation is for the next support to be in the range of 1905.0 - 1920.0.
As mentioned last week, if the orange support at 1975.0 is breached downward, the expectation was for the bears to assume control.
This week, the bears successfully broke below 1975.0, and now we anticipate further bearish movement towards the red demand zone at 1920.0. In this area, we will be on the lookout for potential buy setups.
3. USDT.D, Bitcoin and Ethereum analysis
As a standard practice, I initiate my analysis with USDT.D as it serves as a key indicator of traders' sentiment. USDT.D provides valuable insights into whether traders are optimistic, suggesting increased investment in cryptocurrencies, or pessimistic, indicating a shift towards stablecoins.
This week had a significant impact on the crypto market as USDT.D dropped below its support at 6.4%.
Consequently, this level is now acting as a resistance, and we anticipate further bearish movement towards the 5.83% support.
In the H4 timeframe, the bearish outlook for USDT.D is apparent as long as it maintains its position below the orange trendline.
To regain control, a breakthrough above the blue resistance and surpassing the last high marked in orange at 6.57% is necessary. Should this occur, it could indicate a potential bearish correction for the crypto market.
BTC has remained bullish, trading higher throughout the entire week. Nevertheless, it's important to observe that it is currently situated around the upper boundary of the orange channel and the 38,000 - 40,000 resistance zone.
To sustain bullish momentum, the bulls need to secure a breakthrough above the 38,000 resistance. In such a scenario, we anticipate BTC trading within the daily resistance zone, reaching around 40,000.
Conversely, for the bears to assume control, a downward break below the last major low in red at 35,100 is necessary. In this case, we expect the bears to continue pushing the price lower towards the 32,000 support.
After rejecting the lower bound of the wedge pattern, ETH has shown bullish momentum for four consecutive weeks. Currently, it is approaching the upper boundary of the wedge and the weekly resistance highlighted in blue at 2250.0.
To establish long-term bullish control, a weekly candle close above 2250.0 is required.
On the H4 timeframe, ETH has exhibited a bullish trend, trading within the rising channel highlighted in orange. Consequently, we anticipate continued bullish movement within the weekly resistance zone.
The bulls will maintain control unless there is a downward break of the lower orange trendline and the 1970.0 support. In such a scenario, we would expect bearish control, pushing ETH lower towards around 1750.0.
4. Quotes / Advice
Here are my golden tips for successful trading (Part 2)
Start Small: If you're new to trading, start with a small amount of capital.
Diversify: Avoid putting all your capital into one asset. Diversification can help spread risk and minimize the impact of poor-performing assets on your overall portfolio.
Stay Disciplined: If a trade doesn't go as planned, evaluate it objectively and learn from the experience.
Keep Emotions in Check: Stay calm and rational, especially during volatile market conditions.
5. Closing Remarks
In summary, the cryptocurrency market has maintained a positive trend for a month, with a 6% rise in Bitcoin and resilience in altcoins, as indicated by the market heatmap.
The Fear & Greed Index signals "Greed" for two consecutive weeks, reflecting optimism, though caution is advised.
In the traditional markets, the US500 exhibits a bullish trend but faces resistance, DXY remains stable within support zones, and Gold sees a rejection from a green resistance zone.
USDT.D, a key indicator of trader sentiment, dropped below support at 6.4%, acting as resistance, suggesting potential bearish movement.
Bitcoin remains bullish but nears a crucial resistance zone, while Ethereum shows bullish momentum, approaching a weekly resistance zone.
Caution is advised in the current market conditions, with attention to key support and resistance levels across various assets.