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Table of contents
- Market Heatmap and Fear and Greed Index
- US500, DXY and Gold Analysis
- USDT.D, Bitcoin and Ethereum Analysis
- Quotes / Advice
- Closing Remarks
1. Market Heatmap and Fear and Greed Index
To kickstart my research, I begin by looking at the market heatmap, which gives me a quick snapshot of the whole cryptocurrency scene.
This week, similar to the previous one, the market has been unexciting. The range of BTC's movement is getting smaller, while a few altcoins have capitalized on this chance to make significant gains.
Furthermore, for three weeks in a row, the Fear & Greed Index persists in the neutral range, reflecting an ongoing sense of market stability.
It is crucial to emphasize that prolonged periods of reduced volatility often precede noteworthy price movements. Consequently, it is judicious to maintain a state of watchfulness for potential shifts within the market.
2. US500, DXY and Gold analysis
As the crypto market and the stock market typically demonstrate a robust positive relationship, we consistently monitor the US500 index, which acts as a fundamental gauge of the overarching market sentiment, as usual.
Having encountered resistance at the 4600 level, as discussed in the recent articles, the US500 has shown a prevailing bearish trend and is currently edging closer to a substantial support region at 4400.
Having dipped below the previous week's low of 4540, the bears have maintained control and are currently trading within the descending orange channel. Our projection continues to foresee a potential movement toward the daily support area at approximately 4400.
In order for bullish momentum to regain its footing, a decisive breach above the upper boundary of the orange channel is necessary. Such a development would have a positive impact on the overall health of the crypto market.
As is customary, we maintain a close watch on the DXY - USD Index, as the value of nearly everything, including BTC/USD, is linked to the USD, making it the benchmark currency.
The USD index remains bullish, and we are anticipating further bullish momentum towards the 103.2 supply zone, especially after rejecting the 102.3 support this week.
In accordance with our analysis from the previous week, the DXY experienced a rebound from the lower boundary of the blue channel and the significant low at 101.75, resulting in an upward movement.
The USD index is currently edging closer to the 103.2 daily supply zone, leading us to anticipate the potential activation of bearish sentiment in the short term at any point during the upcoming week.
Subsequent to breaching the 1935 support, bearish momentum retained its grip on Gold. As predicted last week, the price is nearing the 1905 support level.
A breach of this new support could lead to continued bearish movement, potentially reaching the next resistance-turned-support zone around 1850.
In the near term, the prevailing bearish control is evident as the bulls were unable to surpass the 1947 level.
As Gold approaches the 1905 support, our attention turns to identifying potential bullish reversal opportunities on shorter timeframes - unless, as previously indicated on Daily timeframes, the support is breached downwards.
3. USDT.D, Bitcoin and Ethereum analysis
As usual, I always start my analysis with USDT.D as it serves as an indicator of traders' sentiment. USDT.D reflects whether traders are optimistic (investing in cryptocurrencies) or pessimistic (shifting towards stablecoins).
In the current week, USDT.D experienced a rebound from the 7.25% support and is currently resuming an upward trajectory.
In order for bearish sentiment to regain control, a breach below the 7.23% support level is required. Should this transpire, it might herald a prolonged period of bearish momentum, potentially resulting in a descent towards the 7% support level.
Interestingly, such a scenario could potentially contribute to the overall well-being of the cryptocurrency market.
Simultaneously, for the bulls to maintain their short-term dominance, a breakout beyond 7.39% is essential. In such an event, we could anticipate additional bullish momentum extending toward the daily resistance level around 7.5%.
Following the breach of the 30,000 level, the bias on BTC remains bearish, and we continue to anticipate further downside movement towards the 27500 support. This level aligns with the lower green trendline, serving as a non-horizontal support.
On the H4 timeframe, taking a medium-term perspective, BTC is still trapped within a narrow range.
For the bears to gain a stronghold, it's crucial for the price to break decisively below the recent low of 28,700. Conversely, for the bulls to seize the momentum and shift the trend from bearish to bullish, a daily candle close above 30,200 is necessary.
Examining the H1 timeframe in accordance with our previous article, it was highlighted that bearish momentum would manifest upon surpassing the most recent minor low in grey.
The prevailing bias continues to be bearish, with an anticipated downward movement towards the prominent red major low.
However, if BTC manages to exceed 29,527, then short-term control could shift to the bulls, driving the price towards the significant 30,000 major high once more.
ETH is currently situated near a crucial low and finds support at approximately 1815. Consequently, our focus will be on identifying buy setups that align with the ongoing trend, unless the support level is breached downward. In such a scenario, we would anticipate a movement towards the lower red trendline.
Taking a medium-term viewpoint from the H4 timeframe, ETH continues to display a predominantly bearish trend, confined within the parameters of a descending channel marked in orange.
In order for bullish sentiment to reclaim dominance, a pivotal breakthrough above the previous significant high at 1887 becomes imperative.
In the interim, ETH will sustain its bearish posture, with a projected movement towards the convergence of the red and orange trendlines.
Looking at the short-term outlook, bearish influence is set to persist, and we anticipate ETH descending into the support area marked in grey.
However, should the bulls succeed in surpassing the recent major high of 1857, a scenario could unfold where the price moves towards the prominent orange major high.
4. Quotes / Advice
Avoid Adding to Losing Positions!
While this advice may appear straightforward, neglecting or dismissing this fundamental principle has led to catastrophic outcomes for numerous traders throughout history.
Predicting the precise trajectory of any crypto asset over the upcoming hours, days, or weeks remains elusive. Despite well-informed hypotheses, the certainty of a price's short-term movement remains uncertain.
Thus, in the realm of trading, certainty predominantly lies in the present moment. Forecasts about the future are significantly less assured.
The act of increasing your exposure to a losing position—unless you're seeking a speculative thrill!
While it's prudent to allow a position that's in the red to run its course as per the original strategy, the notion of expanding such a position is rarely wise.
5. Closing Remarks
In summary, the cryptocurrency market has exhibited muted movement with BTC's range shrinking and select altcoins capitalizing on this situation for gains.
The Fear & Greed Index has maintained a neutral range for three consecutive weeks, signifying market stability. Such extended low volatility periods often precede significant price shifts, warranting cautious monitoring.
The focus extends to the traditional markets, where the US500 index encounters resistance at 4600, signaling a bearish trend targeting substantial support at 4400.
signallingThe DXY (USD Index) remains bullish, potentially reaching the 103.2 supply zone after rejecting 102.3 support. Gold continues its bearish momentum, approaching the 1905 support and possibly aiming for the 1850 zone.
Traders are attentively observing USDT.D as an indicator of sentiment, noting a rebound from 7.25% support. A breach below 7.23% could usher prolonged bearish momentum.
For BTC, a bearish bias persists after breaching 30,000, eyeing 27500 support; a reversal requires a daily close above 30,200.
ETH sits near a crcial support at 1815, while a descending channel outlines a predominantly bearish trend. Upside momentum needs a breakout above the significant high in 1887.
Watchfulness is advised for potential market shifts.