ello, esteemed members of the ACG community!
Prepare for an exciting journey into the ever-changing world of financial markets. Armed with valuable knowledge, you're on your way to becoming experts in making well-informed choices.
Join us on this exhilarating expedition as we explore the realm of cryptocurrencies, poised to take advantage of the countless opportunities that lie ahead!
Come, participate in this voyage of exploration and empowerment!
Get ready for an adventure in the fascinating universe of digital currencies, where limitless possibilities reveal themselves right in front of you!
Table of contents
- Market Heatmap and Fear and Greed Index
- US500, DXY and Gold Analysis
- USDT.D, Bitcoin and Ethereum Analysis
- Quotes / Advices
- Closing Remarks
1. Market Heatmap and Fear and Greed Index
To kickstart my research, I commence by examining the market heatmap, providing me with a swift overview of the entire cryptocurrency landscape.
Similar to the previous week, this week has been uneventful, with BTC remaining confined to a narrow 1000 range. The heatmap unmistakably shows that the prevailing sentiment remains bearish, though relatively stable, with BTC experiencing a marginal decrease of -0.46%.
Additionally, it's important to highlight that the Fear & Greed Index has once again indicated fear for the ongoing week.
Historically, when fear is signaled for 2-3 consecutive weeks, we can start to anticipate a shift in sentiment from bearish to bullish.
However, it's essential to remain cautious, as there is still a chance of further decline, possibly testing the support level before any upward momentum becomes prominent. Therefore, it's advisable to exercise caution and avoid making hasty decisions.
2. US500, DXY and Gold analysis
We consistently monitor the US500 index to assess the current market sentiment. This is important because the cryptocurrency market often exhibits a strong connection with the stock market, and this relationship can influence its fluctuations.
The US500 index remains confined within a substantial range, bounded by our support level at 4330.0 and resistance at 4580.0.
Last week, the US500 bounced off our support level, and it is currently on a trajectory towards the resistance zone, where we anticipate bearish activity to potentially emerge.
The bears assumed control last week as we witnessed a breach below the significant 4474.0 level, which had previously served as both a major low and high.
Consequently, we anticipate continued bearish pressure, with a potential target being the support at 4330.0. However, should the bulls regain control by surpassing the 4474.0 threshold, we would then anticipate a bullish rally towards the 4570.0 gap.
As a standard practice, we closely monitor the DXY - USD Index. This is because the value of nearly everything, including BTC/USD, is tied to the USD, making it the reference currency.
The USD index maintains its strength, particularly evident after it rejected the significant low at 103.0 and successfully surpassed the previous major high, highlighted in blue.
As the DXY approaches the resistance range of 105.0 to 105.7, we anticipate the possibility of a reversal, pending confirmation through a bearish reversal setup detected on lower timeframes.
The bullish momentum will persist as long as the recent low marked in blue at 104.67 holds firm.
If this level is breached to the downside, we anticipate a shift in sentiment from bullish to bearish, potentially leading to a movement towards the support zone around 103.63.
Turning our attention to Gold, in line with our discussion from the previous week, bearish sentiment took hold, resulting in a rejection at the orange resistance zone.
The bears will continue to dominate unless we see a breakthrough above both the orange zone and the brown trendline.
Here's the perspective from the H4 timeframe, illustrating that the bears assumed control following a break below 1935.0.
Presently, we anticipate a continuation of bearish momentum, possibly leading to a descent towards the 1905.0 support level, where we will be on the lookout for potential buy setups.
3. USDT.D, Bitcoin and Ethereum analysis
As usual, I always start my analysis with USDT.D as it serves as an indicator of traders' sentiment. USDT.D reflects whether traders are optimistic (investing in cryptocurrencies) or pessimistic (shifting towards stablecoins).
USDT.D has been quite uneventful this week, staying firmly within our established resistance zone. To sustain the current bullish trend, it's essential for us to witness a successful breach above the 8.3% threshold.
If such a breakthrough materializes, we could foresee a continuation of the bullish trend towards the 8.6% resistance level, a development that might not be favorable for the broader cryptocurrency market.
On the flip side, if the bears aim to seize short-term control and reject the orange resistance zone, we require the closing of an H4 candle below the prior low, approximately around the 8.17% mark.
Subsequently, for the bears to maintain their medium-term dominance, a break below 8.0% becomes necessary.
Much like USDT.D, BTC has been range-bound, hovering around the 25,000 support region. As a result, we maintain our expectations for an imminent bullish upswing.
However, it's worth noting that BTC could potentially undergo a temporary decline within the support area, as long as the 24,200 level remains unbroken.
When examining the H1 timeframe to spot short-term bullish momentum, it's crucial to observe a breakout beyond the recent high, denoted in blue, at 25,935. If this breakthrough materializes, we can reasonably anticipate a push towards the prior significant high at 26,400.
Subsequently, for the bulls to maintain control and establish a medium-term dominance, a breach above 26,400 is required. In such a scenario, we would expect a movement towards the 27,250 supply zone.
However, until the bulls assume control, BTC will likely remain within a narrow range and could still test the support zone between 25,000 and 25,500.
Much like BTC, ETH has been confined within a trading range that extends from 1600.0 to 1670.0.
If we witness a daily candle closing below the 1600.0 level, it would be prudent to entertain the possibility of additional bearish movement, potentially reaching towards the lower limit of the orange channel.
Adopting a medium-term outlook on the H4 timeframe, the bulls must succeed in breaking above the latest minor high at 1670.0 in order to solidify their control.
In the event of this breakthrough, we can reasonably expect a bullish ascent towards 1740.0. Moreover, should the price surpass 1740.0, we should prepare for the possibility of a further advance towards 1815.0.
4. Quotes / Advice
One common pitfall for new traders is assuming that trading is a simple path to success. Many start without proper education and experience, resulting in swift losses.
These unsuccessful traders sometimes generalize their experience, spreading the misconception that trading is universally unprofitable.
Remember, trading is a business. Like any business, a detailed plan is crucial before you invest your money. Define your trading style, expectations, strategies, and what you'll trade.
Avoid investing without a well-thought-out trading plan to improve your chances of success.
5. Closing Remarks
In summary, the cryptocurrency market remains relatively stable but bearish, with Bitcoin (BTC) experiencing a slight decrease in value.
The Fear & Greed Index continues to signal fear for the ongoing week, hinting at a potential shift in sentiment from bearish to bullish if this fear persists for several weeks. However, caution is advised, as further declines are possible.
The US500 is currently trading within a range, with bearish activity anticipated if it approaches resistance.
The DXY exhibits strength but might reverse at resistance levels, impacting cryptocurrencies tied to the USD.
Gold remains bearish unless it breaks key resistance levels.
USDT.D, a gauge of traders' sentiment, is stable within a resistance zone. A bullish breakout may impact the broader cryptocurrency market.
Bitcoin is range-bound, with potential for a bullish upswing but also the possibility of temporary declines.
Ethereum, too, is in a trading range, with bullish potential upon breaking key resistance levels.
In conclusion, the cryptocurrency landscape remains uncertain, with both bullish and bearish possibilities.
Traders should exercise caution and closely monitor market developments, especially in traditional markets, as they can influence cryptocurrency fluctuations.
