Greetings, ACG family! Welcome to our latest Market Outlook, where we delve into the captivating world of cryptocurrencies from a technical standpoint.
The crypto landscape is ever-changing, and here’s where you’ll find plenty of opportunities.
Together, we’ll delve into the depths of this exciting realm and seize the golden moments that come our way.
Grab a cup of coffee or tea, sit back, and enjoy the article.
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I always begin my research by checking the market heatmap to obtain a quick glimpse and an overall sense of the entire crypto market. Currently, BTC is still exhibiting a bullish trend, albeit more within a range.
It is worth noting that BTC dominance has declined from 49.4% to 48.91% throughout this week. As a result, altcoins have seized the opportunity to strengthen their position in the market.
Furthermore, the Fear & Greed Index has continued to indicate “Greed” over the past week, which serves as an early warning sign of potential overbought conditions. This is particularly relevant considering that BTC has remained trapped within a range of 29,500 and 31,500, showing limited price movement.
Remember; due to the strong positive correlation between the crypto market and the stock market, we consistently keep a close eye on the US500 index as a mean to assess the overall market sentiment.
“S&P 500 Index, also known as the Standard & Poor’s 500 or the US500, is an American stock market index that tracks the performance of the top 500 companies listed on the Nasdaq Stock Market or the New York Stock Exchange.”
US500 Chart – Daily TimeframeThe US500 index maintains a bullish stance both in the long-term and short-term. This week, we observed a successful rejection of the 4300 support zone, and the index is now poised to approach the resistance level at 4500.
It is important to note that the 4500 level is regarded as an overbought territory. Therefore, as we approach this level, there is an increasing probability of witnessing a bearish reversal from a medium-term perspective. This potential reversal would need confirmation on lower timeframes.
We also closely monitor the DXY – USD Index since the valuation of almost everything, such as BTC/USD, is based on the USD.
DXY Chart – Daily TimeframeFollowing a bearish period lasting a couple of weeks, it appears that the bulls have regained momentum. This is evident from the recent breakout above the previous significant high, which is marked in orange. As a result, we anticipate continued bullish movement towards the upper black trendline in the near future.
DXY Chart – H4 TimeframeThe overall bias for DXY (U.S. Dollar Index) will remain bullish unless the bears succeed in breaking below the last major low marked in blue around 102.71. If this support level is breached, we can anticipate a continuation of the downtrend towards the 101.7 support zone.
GOLD Chart – Daily TimeframeGold has experienced a rejection of our previously identified demand zone at 1905 since our last article and is currently approaching a significant resistance zone marked in orange at 1943.
Should gold manage to break above this orange resistance zone, we can anticipate further bullish movement in the price.
However, it is worth noting that there is still a possibility for the bears to intervene and reject the resistance, potentially leading to a reversal in the price direction.
GOLD Chart – H1 TimeframeTaking a closer look at the H1 timeframe, it becomes evident that the bulls are maintaining control in the market. We can expect this bullish momentum to persist until the price reaches the orange resistance zone.
Nevertheless, it is important to closely monitor the last major low at 1920. If the price breaks below this level, it could indicate a potential shift in market sentiment, potentially leading to a reversal in the bullish trend.
As usual, USDT.D and Fear & Greed Index both gauge trader sentiment. USDT.D shows if traders are optimistic (investing in crypto) or pessimistic (shifting to stablecoins).
USDT.D Chart – Daily Timeframe
USDT.D continues to display weakness, which is considered positive or healthy for the overall crypto market. It recently broke below the support level of 7.25% and is currently hovering around the next support level at approximately 7%.
It is worth noting that there is a possibility for USDT.D to trade even lower and potentially reach the support level around 6.9% before finding additional support.
On the other hand, if USDT.D manages to break above the 7.1% level, it would indicate a potential takeover by the bulls. In such a scenario, we can anticipate a bearish correction across a majority of crypto assets.
Therefore, closely monitoring the movements of USDT.D is essential for assessing market trends and making informed investment decisions.
Which brings us to our next instrument, BTC.D (Bitcoin Dominance), which serves as another valuable tool for assessing trends in the crypto market.
BTC.D Chart – Weekly TimeframeIndeed, BTC.D (Bitcoin Dominance) has demonstrated a bullish trend for the past few months, indicating that Bitcoin has been outperforming the entire crypto market.
Nevertheless, it is worth noting that BTC.D is currently facing rejection from a significant resistance zone at approximately 52%. To sustain Bitcoin’s dominance, we would need to observe a weekly candle close above the 53% level.
BTC.D Chart – H4 TimeframeFrom a short-term perspective, it is evident that the bears have taken control, as they successfully broke below the previous low marked in blue. This aligns with the observation of BTC dominance weakening as indicated by the market heatmap mentioned earlier in the article.
Consequently, our expectation is for BTC.D to trade lower, potentially reaching the 50% round number once again. This implies that altcoins are likely to continue their upward surge in the upcoming days, benefiting from the diminishing dominance of Bitcoin.
BTC Chart – Daily TimeframeBTC remains stagnant within the 30,000 – 32,000 resistance zone this week. If we wish to establish long-term bullish momentum and potentially initiate the next bull run, it is crucial to witness a weekly candle close above 32,000.
In the meantime, there remains a possibility for the bears to exert their influence and trigger a further correction. To see the bears take control and initiate a correction, we would need a break below the red-marked level at 29,500.
If this scenario plays out, we can anticipate a movement towards the green support and trendline, which is situated around 27,500. At that point, we will closely monitor the market for new short-term trend-following buy setups.
BTC Chart – H4 TimeframeHere is a zoomed-in picture from the H4 timeframe, showing that the latest range forms a rising channel.
A break below 30,000 could lead to a bearish reversal, potentially pushing the price towards the 27,500 support and demand zone.
Meanwhile, BTC will remain bullish, and the next resistance is expected to be around 32,000 and the upper orange trendline.
ETH Chart – Weekly TimeframeWe are still awaiting a weekly candle close above the blue-marked level at 2250.0 to signal a potential takeover by the bulls from a macro perspective.
In the meantime, as ETH approaches the lower trendline and green support, we will actively search for potential buy setups. This suggests that we will closely monitor the price action around these levels for favorable opportunities to enter long positions.
ETH Chart – Daily TimeframeMy findings suggest that in order to sustain bullish control from a short-term perspective, it is crucial for the grey minor support level at 1885 to hold.
However, if ETH breaks below the 1885 level, it would indicate a potential shift in market sentiment, with the bears taking charge. In such a scenario, we can anticipate the price to decline towards the green support level around 1700.
Be like a sniper, waiting patiently for the perfect shot, while machine gunners (scalpers) perish on the front lines.
Just because you can trade anytime doesn’t mean you should!
Make a plan and stick to it.
Once you have a plan in place, make sure each trade you consider falls within your plan’s parameters.
Remember: you’re likely most rational before placing a trade and most irrational after placing it.
Trading does not have to be complicated. Keep it simple!
Having more than two trading indicators on your chart only makes the trading process more distracting than it needs to be.
To summarise, the market heatmap indicates a bullish trend for BTC within a range, while altcoins have been strengthening their position as BTC dominance declines. The Fear & Greed Index suggests potential overbought conditions.
In the traditional markets, the US500 index is bullish but approaching an overbought territory, while the DXY (USD Index) shows signs of bullish momentum unless a major support level is breached.
Gold faces resistance but maintains a bullish bias, while BTC and ETH are in critical price levels, with BTC needing to break above resistance for bullish momentum and ETH needing to hold a support level to sustain its bullish control.
Stay informed and closely monitor these indicators and levels to make well-informed decisions in the dynamic and ever-changing crypto market.
