Join me as we analyse the current market situation. Are we bullish or are we bearish?
AltCryptoGems Market Outlook – 29/06/23
Table of Contents:
- Market Heatmap and Fear and Greed Index
- US500, DXY and Gold Analysis
- USDT.D, Bitcoin and Ethereum Analysis
- Quotes / Advice
- Closing Remarks
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Greetings, ACG family! Welcome to our latest Market Outlook, where we dive deep into the exciting world of cryptocurrencies from a technical perspective.
Buckle up as we take you on a journey through the current market conditions, equipping you with the knowledge you need to stay ahead and make informed decisions.
Get ready to navigate the crypto landscape like a pro and seize those golden opportunities!
Table of contents
- Market Heatmap and Fear and Greed Index
- US500, DXY and Gold Analysis
- USDT.D, Bitcoin and Ethereum Analysis
- Quotes / Advice
- Closing Remarks
1- Market Heatmap and Fear and Greed Index
Let’s begin by analysing the heatmap, which clearly illustrates that BTC has outperformed the majority of altcoins. Today, BTC stands out as one of the few cryptocurrencies in the green, boasting a dominance approaching the 50% mark.
Furthermore, the Fear & Greed Index has consistently indicated “Greed” over the past two days, serving as an early warning sign of potential overbought conditions. It comes as no surprise, considering that BTC has remained within a resistance zone for the past few days.
2- US500, DXY and Gold analysis
Since the crypto market exhibits a strong positive correlation with the stock market, we consistently monitor the US500 index to gauge the overall market sentiment.
“S&P 500 Index, also known as the Standard & Poor’s 500 or the US500, is an American stock market index that tracks the performance of the top 500 companies listed on the Nasdaq Stock Market or the New York Stock Exchange.”
US500 Chart – Daily Timeframe
The US500 has displayed an overall bullish trend, trading within an ascending red channel. As long as the blue support level remains unbroken below 4265, the bulls will maintain control. However, a breach of this support level could lead to an extended correction, potentially targeting the 4100 support level.
Simultaneously, as the US500 approaches the 4300 support, we anticipate a resurgence of bullish momentum, potentially driving the index towards the 4500 level.
It is worth noting that the 4500 level is considered overbought, and we anticipate a rejection to be confirmed on lower timeframes.
We also closely monitor the DXY – USD Index since the valuation of almost everything, such as BTC/USD, is based on the USD.
DXY Chart – Daily Timeframe
It is logical to observe the current bearish nature of the DXY chart, as it typically exhibits an inverse relationship with the US500.
The DXY is expected to remain bearish, with a projected movement towards the blue support level at 101.7.
A shift in momentum from bearish to bullish will only occur if the DXY successfully breaks above the previous significant high, indicated by the orange marker. In such a scenario, we can anticipate a movement towards the upper black trendline, which would have adverse implications for both the stock and crypto markets.
GOLD Chart – Daily Timeframe
Gold maintains a predominantly bearish stance, particularly after breaching its recent significant low. If the demand zone around 1905 fails to provide support, we can anticipate further bearish movements towards the subsequent support level around 1850.
Conversely, for the bulls to regain control, a break above the orange zone at 1943 is necessary.
3- USDT.D, Bitcoin and Ethereum analysis
To me, USDT.D serves a similar purpose as the Fear & Greed Index, as it indicates the sentiment of traders. It measures whether traders are optimistic and utilising their USDT to invest in crypto assets or if they are pessimistic and shifting their crypto holdings to a stable coin like USDT.
USDT.D Chart – Daily Timeframe
After experiencing a significant downward movement, USDT.D has encountered a temporary pause around the 7.1% support level.
This particular green support zone represents a critical juncture, where a decision is imminent.
If USDT.D breaks below the 7.1% level, further bearish movement can be expected, potentially targeting the next support around 6.6%. This would be considered bullish or favourable for the overall crypto market.
Conversely, as long as the 7.1% support holds, there is still a possibility for bullish momentum to emerge, particularly if USDT.D manages to surpass the orange resistance formed by the previous significant high. In such a scenario, we can anticipate a bearish correction across most crypto assets.
BTC Chart – Weekly Timeframe
As observed from the chart above, BTC has shown a tendency to respect round numbers with differences of 10,000.
Following its breakthrough above the 20,000 zone and the previous significant high, BTC has maintained an overall bullish trend, forming higher highs and higher lows.
However, it is presently situated within a strong resistance zone that was formerly a support level.
To establish long-term bullish momentum and potentially initiate the next bull run, it is crucial to see a weekly candle close above 32,000.
In the interim, there remains the possibility for bears to assert themselves and prompt further correction.
BTC Chart – Daily Timeframe
For the bears to take over and initiate a correction, we would require a break below the red-marked level at 29,500.
In such a scenario, we can anticipate a movement towards the green support and trendline around 27,000. At that point, we will be on the lookout for new short-term trend-following buy setups.
ETH Chart – Weekly Timeframe
ETH has been overall bullish trading within a rising wedge pattern. To establish long-term bullish control, it is crucial to see a weekly candle close above the blue-marked level at 2250.0.
In the meantime, as we approach the lower trend line and green support, we will actively seek out potential buy setups.
ETH Chart – Daily Timeframe
To maintain bullish control, it is necessary for the bulls to surpass the current minor resistance level marked in orange at 1940.0. If this breakthrough occurs, we can anticipate a movement towards the weekly resistance level highlighted in blue.
Conversely, if ETH breaks below the last minor low depicted in grey, we can expect the bears to take charge and drive the price towards the green support level.
4- Quotes / Advice
When in doubt; stay out! Sometimes, no trade is also a trade.
You don’t have to trade every week, and you don’t have to catch every trade.
Don’t force trades just because you have more time or you feel like trading.
Always remember => you are Getting Paid; to Wait!
Be patient, and trust the process.
The most important of all tips on Trading. “Always have a plan”
Don’t put your hard-earned money on the line until you have a plan of action.
That means knowing what you’re buying and selling, when you’re going to trade it, and how much you are going to risk per trade.
A trader without a plan is a pig heading for an expensive slaughter.
5- Closing Remarks
In summary, the crypto market is a thrilling playground where Bitcoin reigns supreme, outshining its altcoin counterparts. However, caution is advised as the Fear & Greed Index signals potential overbought conditions.
Shifting our focus to the stock market, the US500 index has been riding a bullish wave, but beware of a possible correction if support levels are breached.
Meanwhile, the bearish DXY and Gold’s struggle to break key resistance levels keep us on our toes.
The USDT.D chart offers a glimpse into trader sentiment, holding the potential for a bullish shift if support holds strong.
As for Bitcoin, its bullish momentum persists, but formidable resistance lies ahead, while Ethereum flaunts a rising wedge pattern in its quest for sustained bullish control.
In a nutshell, caution is paramount given BTC’s performance and market sentiment, while the stock market, USD, and Gold present a mixed bag of trends. Stay informed and navigate the market wisely with these factors in mind.
Closing
That’s it for now! Thanks for reading today’s Market Update! Be sure to have a look at the Blog section to read our previous editions and newsletters as well! Have a look at our Guides section if you’re interested in learning more about crypto! And finally, don’t forget to follow us on Twitter!
